The Coldwell Banker Carlson Real Estate Market Report

☆☆ January 30, 2018 UPDATE: the report has been reformatted to be more reader-friendly. Click on the link below to see the enhanced format. ☆☆

2017 Year-End Stowe Area Report
including Details for Stowe, Waterbury, and all of Lamoille County

Our 2017 Year-End Market Report uses market-wide data, based on transactions that closed in 2017 in our Multiple Listing Service; and, compares them to sales that took place during the same time period in 2016, providing the most comprehensive market analysis in the area.

Read the complete report here.

Call (802-730-4343) or write
with any questions or for more information

Why Did Home Sales Drop So Dramatically Last Month?

Yesterday, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their latest Existing Home Sales Report which covered sales in November. The report revealed that sales:

“…fell 10.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.76 million in November (lowest since April 2014 at 4.75 million)…”

That revelation gave birth to a series of industry articles, some of which quoted pundits questioning whether the housing market was slowing. In actuality, there is one rather simple explanation to much of the falloff in sales last month. It is likely the implementation of the “Know Before You Owe” mortgage rule, commonly known as the TILA-RESPA Integrated Disclosure (TRID) rule, which went into effect on October 3. These regulations caused house closings to be delayed by an extra three days in November as shown in the graph below.

 

Days-to-Close-KCM.jpg

Three days might sound like a minimal difference. However, since there are only approximately 20 days in a month that a closing would normally take place (Mondays through Fridays), losing three days constitutes well over 10% of all closings. These sales are not lost. They are just moved into the next month’s numbers. In a DS News article on the subject yesterday, Auction.com EVP Rick Sharga explained:

“The most likely cause for the weak sales numbers is a delay in processing loans due to the new TRID mortgage requirements imposed by the CFPB. This is the biggest change in mortgage document processing in many years, and there have been numerous reports within the industry of problems implementing the process and the new documentation that comes with it.”

So how is the housing market actually doing?

A better way to look at how well the housing market is doing is to look at the Foot Traffic Report from NAR which quantifies the number of prospective buyers that are actively looking for a home at the current time:

A better way to look at how well the housing market is doing is to look at the Foot Traffic Report from NAR which quantifies the number of prospective buyers that are actively looking for a home at the current time:

We can see immediately that demand to buy single family homes is increasing over the last few months - not decreasing.

Bottom Line

No matter what last month’s sales numbers show, the housing market is still doing well as demand remains strong.

Q2 2015 Real Estate Market Data

for Stowe VT, Lamoille County, and Waterbury VT

The Stowe real-estate market showed stability & activity through the first 6 months of 2015. While down slightly compared to this time last year, a review of the past 10 years shows more traditional growth & stability than we have seen since the bottom of the market in 2009.

The Lamoille market (all towns except Stowe) finally saw steady year-over-year numbers, with some growth in the market above $300K. If this growth continues we expect a strong market showing for the last 6 months of 2015.

Finally the Waterbury market has continued to move in a positive direction, doubling the number of homes sold compared to the first six months in 2014.  The 2nd half of 2014 experienced a slowdown; so, we'll see if Waterbury can continue its strong growth or if there will be a slight contraction.

See more data and charts in the Market Data section of this web site.

Home Prices are Climbing Faster and Faster

But this is not a bubble

Real Estate News   |  Apr 24, 2015 |  By: Jonathan Smoke

This spring buying season is off to a strong start—in fact, prices are going up faster than they were just a few months ago, according to nearly every recent metric. So does that mean we’re in a bubble?

Nope, that’s just what happens when demand increases faster than supply. After all, existing-home sales were up 9% year over year in March, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Inventory is also increasing, but not as fast as sales, resulting in a tight supply getting even tighter.

An equilibrium level of supply on the market is considered to be six to seven months; supply has been under five months since December. Looking at every quarter since 1988, when supply was under five months, prices rose 8% year over year on average. When supply was in the equilibrium range, prices went up only 4% on average.

The median existing home price in March was $212,100, up 8% over last year, according to the NAR. The median list price in March on realtor.com® was $220,000, which was up 11% over last year.

During the peak years of the housing bubble, from 2003 to 2005, the data on supply versus price appreciation looked very similar to what we are seeing now. But there are key differences, which is why I’m confident that on the national level, this is no bubble.

Read the rest of this article at Realtor.com to see why, this time, the price increases should stick .


As chief economist of realtor.com®, Jonathan Smoke leads its efforts to develop and translate real estate data and trends into accurate and relevant consumer and industry insights on housing.

Q1 2015 Real Estate Market Data for Stowe VT, Lamoille County, and Waterbury VT

The Stowe, VT real-estate market began 2015 as a strong and stable market. While sales were down slightly compared to Q1 2014, the increase in activity, showings, offers, and contracts signed by the end of Q1 2015 is pointing to a year of potential growth. The real-estate in the rest of Lamoille County, excluding Stowe, saw some contraction this quarter, but is expected to move into positive territory with the arrival of warmer weather. Finally, the Waterbury market was not only stable in Q1, but this market is gaining in all significant categories.

Click here to see the complete Q1 2015 reports for Stowe VT, Lamoille County, and Waterbury VT.

2014 Year-end Stowe and Lamoille County Real Estate Market Data

Coldwell Banker Carlson Real Estate

Interest rates are as low as we’ve seen in a long time (3.75% for a 30-year fixed, at the time of this publication), and a local mortgage broker has recently indicated that his portfolio of loans to close in the first quarter of 2015, is the largest he’s seen in the past 5-6 years.

Read the complete year-end report here with additional data for Lamoille County and Waterbury.

March 2014 Stowe-area Real-estate Market Report

Signs of spring in Vermont are finally beginning to emerge after a very cold and snowy winter. With the transition from from winter to Spring getting a late start this year, some are still skiing the back country, while die hard mountain- and road-bikers have already begun prepping their bikes for a late spring start in the woods and on local roads and byways. Trees and flowers will soon begin to blossom, just as the real-estate market will. Sales have been robust this winter, and projections indicate continued growth. Vibrancy continues in Stowe village as well, with Plate, our newest restaurant having recently opened to rave reviews.

Q1 2014 has shown another marked increase in residential sales compared to Q1 2013, with home sales up 60%. That is the most significant increase we’ve seen since 2010, when it was approximately 27%.

Consumer confidence continues to strengthen, buyer demand is strong, interest rates are still low and stable, and an area-wide decline in inventory have all combined to create a vigorous market and strong start to the new year. Residential inventory is down 11%, which is a 10-month supply and is 44% lower than Q1 2013. In contrast, the Q1 2014 median and average residential sales prices soared 71% and 41%, respectively.

STOWE TOWNHOMES AND CONDOMINIUMS

Inventory is down, closing prices are up slightly, at 1.1%, and median prices are down both for March and YTD. The percent of original price received is up 9% in March and 9.6% YTD.  If you've been wanting to buy, the time is still right!

STOWE SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES

New listings and closed sales are growing, and closing prices are up, indicating a shift towards more expensive homes. Median and Average sales prices are both up significantly; and, homes are selling more quickly (by 25%) than they did a year ago. But inventory, overall, is decreasing, with months supply down to 11.2, down from 19.3 at the end of March 2013. The net? There's a bit of buying frenzy going on. If you're planning to buy a single-family home in Stowe, you should think about starting your search soon.

Read the complete report, with stats for Stowe and Lamoille County.

February 2014 Stowe-area Real-Estate Market Report

Stowe Townhomes and Condominiums

Inventory is down, closing prices are up. Interest rates are working their way up. If you've been wanting to buy, the time is right!

Stowe Single-family Homes

Inventory is down, closing prices are down minimally, and interest rates are working their way up. If you've been waiting to buy a single-family home in Stowe, don't delay too much longer.

Read the complete report, with stats for Stowe and Lamoille County

Read the recently released February existing-home sales report from the National Association of Realtors, which is consistent with our Stowe-area statistics, without the weather's negative impact on activity as it is in much of the rest of the country.

Real-Estate Market Reports for Stowe and Lamoille County

 

The same factors that catalyzed widespread market recovery in 2012 and 2013 are likely to continue in 2014, though perhaps at a more moderate pace. That’s not a bad thing, since the market is returning to a stable, healthy state. Potential trends to watch for in 2014 include increased seller activity, more new construction and fewer foreclosures on the market. Inventory is another metric to watch this year.

Read the complete report, with stats for Lamoille County and Stowe, here.

November 2013 Market Report

November was largely another encouraging month for residential real estate. Our attention has shifted from multi-year high prices and sales volumes to seller activity, inventory levels and building permits. And let’s not forget the calendar effect. As families gather together, fewer house hunters are scheduling showings and writing offers. Watch for month-to-month activity to moderate while year-over-year comparisons remain strong.

Read the complete report, with stats for Lamoille County and Stowe, here.

Market Data Update: Stowe "Selling Prices to Listing Prices"

Stowe 2011 Residential Selling Prices to Listed PricesThe 2011 Residential (not including Condominiums) Selling Prices to Listing Prices in Stowe, Vermont were, on average -9%. That is, most homes in Stowe sold, in 2011, at 9% below their Listing Price. See this new chart here.

The Strength of the Coldwell Banker Brand

The 2011 Market Data statistics for the 4th Quarter 2011, and for the entire year, are still in the works However, the first one I'm delighted to share with you, shows that the Coldwell Banker brand is the 2011 Vermont Sales Volume Leader. See the chart here.